A project’s financial model is checked from its assumptions, not from its IRR

1. Sale price or rent at the completion date

The model should take the price at the moment the property reaches the market, not today’s. In two or three years of construction, competitors will appear nearby and the market may turn.

Housing. According to the National Statistics Committee index, Tashkent flats rose 3.9% in the year to the second quarter of 2026, and 5% on the new-build market. Annual inflation in Tashkent was 7.4% in October 2026. The Central Bank notes that market housing prices fell 4.8% in 2025. A model in which the price per square metre rises faster than inflation every year is not supported by the data for 2025–2026.

Offices. Coldwell Banker Commercial Uzbekistan estimates that about 150,000 sq m of new Class A offices appeared in Tashkent between December 2025 and the second quarter of 2026, with more than 100,000 sq m to follow from 2027. The base-case vacancy for new buildings of this class is 40–50%. A business centre reaching the market in two years will compete with that space, not with the market average rent.

What to check. The source and date of every price in the model. The difference between asking and transaction prices. The volume of competing supply at the completion date.

2. Pace of sales or lease-up

How many square metres are sold or let each month determines when the money comes back. This assumption affects the return more than it seems, because it shifts every receipt in time.

The arithmetic: at a discount rate of 20% a year, each year of delay reduces the present value of all future receipts by 16.7% (1 − 1 / 1.20). The 20% rate is taken for the calculation: it is slightly below the average rate on soum loans to companies, which was 21.8% in June 2026 according to the Central Bank.

The pace of transactions in 2026 was uneven. March saw 43,600 housing transactions nationwide, a record before the move to escrow settlements on 1 April. In summer the market returned to 25,000–26,000 a month. A sales plan built on the March figures will be overstated.

What to check. What the pace is based on: transactions in comparable properties or the sales department’s plan. Whether a one-off surge got into the base. How the model behaves if the pace is half as fast.

3. Construction cost and duration

A cost estimate at the date of the calculation is not the same as actual costs two years later. Annual inflation in Uzbekistan was 6.5% in October 2026, and 7.4% in Tashkent. If soum costs are not indexed, the estimate for a 24-month project will lag prices by 13.4% (1.065² − 1) by the end of construction, provided construction prices rise no faster than consumer prices. They may rise faster, so the construction price index published by the National Statistics Committee is the better basis.

What to check. Indexation of costs by year. A contingency reserve as a separate line. The contractor payment schedule and its link to the sales schedule.

4. Cost of money and currency

The Central Bank’s policy rate is 14% a year. The decision to hold it was published on 4 November 2026; at the same time the bank raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 from 6.5% to 7%. The average rate on soum loans to companies was 21.8% in June 2026. On foreign-currency loans to companies the rate held at about 10% in 2025.

Commercial rents in Tashkent are usually quoted in dollars, while costs and loans are often in soums. Currency risk works both ways. At the official rate the dollar cost UZS 12,920 at the end of 2024, 12,025 at the end of 2025 and 11,964 on 12 November 2026. In 2025 the soum strengthened 7%: an owner with dollar rents and soum costs received 7% fewer soums at the same rent.

What to check. The currency of each cash flow and the exchange rate assumed. The calculation at a rate 10% higher and lower. Falling interest rates are a scenario, not the base case: we treat a model that pays back only with cheap refinancing as unverified.

5. Exit price

If a project is built for sale as a completed building, or valued over a holding period, its value at the end of the calculation is the annual net operating income divided by the capitalisation rate. In such a model this is usually the largest single receipt.

The arithmetic: at a capitalisation rate of 10%, a rise of one percentage point cuts the exit value by 9.1% (1 − 10 / 11); at 12%, by 7.7% (1 − 12 / 13).

There are no public statistics on capitalisation rates from actual transactions in Tashkent office and retail buildings. The only estimate we found is the SHRE review for the first quarter of 2026: Prime office yields of 8.75–10.5%, other offices 10–12%, retail from 9% to 12% and above; the review does not disclose its method. The exit figure in any model is therefore an expert assumption and needs especially detailed justification.

What to check. Where the capitalisation rate comes from. What share of NPV falls on the exit value. What happens to IRR at a rate one and two points higher.

What the shared-equity construction bill changes

On 10 November 2026 the Legislative Chamber adopted in the third reading, and sent to the Senate, the law on shared-equity construction of apartment blocks and other property. In the version debated:

• buyers’ money is held in escrow accounts and transferred to the developer after the building is commissioned;
• at least 70% of the construction cost is financed by a bank loan, and no more than 30% by the developer’s own funds;
• money may be raised from citizens only after registration in the unified information system, a general agreement with an authorised bank and publication of a project declaration.

For the model this is the main change of 2026. Sales during construction stop financing construction: buyers’ money arrives at the end, and the loan pays for the build. The arithmetic: if 70% of the construction cost is borrowed at 21.8% a year and drawn evenly over 24 months, interest during construction comes to about 15% of the construction cost (0.7 × 21.8% × 2 years × 0.5). Even at 14% it is almost 10%.

The law has not yet been signed, and the final wording may differ. Models for projects starting in 2027 should be run in two versions: under the current rules and under the new ones.

Five assumptions and open benchmarks